Positioning Kenya’s Proposed Refinery for Regional Energy Security, Cross-Continental Market Access, and Industrial Transformation

Executive Summary

Kenya should strategically leverage the proposed petroleum refinery as a national development catalyst to strengthen regional energy security, accelerate industrialisation, and reinforce its geo-economic leadership in Eastern Africa. Despite serving as a major gateway for refined petroleum products, Kenya remains heavily dependent on imported fuels, exposing the country and region to supply disruptions, price volatility, foreign exchange pressures, and limited industrial value addition. Rising energy demand makes the refinery an opportunity to build a resilient regional energy system and stimulate downstream industries. The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria demonstrates how modern refining capacity can evolve into a regional and international export platform, generating foreign exchange and opening new trade flows. Strategically located on the Indian Ocean, a Kenyan refinery could similarly serve Eastern and Southern African markets while retaining wider export potential. This policy brief argues that the refinery should be treated as a strategic national development initiative, not merely an energy project. It recommends integrating refining with petrochemicals and manufacturing, strengthening strategic reserves and regional energy cooperation, aligning the project with AfCFTA, and ensuring transparent governance, environmental safeguards, cybersecurity, and local content development.