El Niño and Eastern Africa’s Resilience to Interconnected Human, Economic, Health and Security Risks

Abstract

This week’s Influential Bulletin examines how Eastern Africa can strengthen resilience to El Niño through anticipatory governance, regional cooperation and integrated preparedness. Across food security, regional coordination, transnational organized crime, health infrastructure and disaster governance, evidence demonstrates that El Niño can generate interconnected humanitarian, economic, health and security risks that transcend national borders. Technology, early warning systems, regional information sharing and digital tools can strengthen preparedness, but their effectiveness depends on institutions capable of converting information into timely action. The Bulletin therefore highlights the importance of resilient infrastructure, predictable anticipatory financing, interoperable data and surveillance systems, stronger EAC and IGAD coordination, and community-centred preparedness. It also underscores the need to protect humanitarian operations and critical systems from criminal exploitation during emergencies. Collectively, the analysis call for Eastern Africa to shift from reactive crisis management towards coordinated, risk informed governance that anticipates cascading El Niño impacts and protects lives, livelihoods, infrastructure and economic stability.