Great-power Competition & Regional Agency in Eastern Africa

Abstract

"Eastern Africa is navigating a complex matrix of converging external and internal geopolitical tensions, where internal governance challenges intersect with intensifying external power competition. The region's strategic relevance is rising, fueled by its geography, resources, and role as a corridor in the US-China energy rivalry, a position demanding disciplined diplomacy to avoid binary alignment. Simultaneously, Washington's retreat from multilateralism necessitates stronger African Union coordination to fill governance gaps. Regional stability faces further tests from Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions, requiring urgent preventive diplomacy, and from Gulf rivalries spilling into the Red Sea, which calls for diversified partnerships. The cross-cutting imperative is clear: Eastern Africa must transform both external and internal pressures into leverage, fortifying regional institutions and asserting strategic autonomy to shape its future in a fragmenting world order".