Geostrategic Options to Strengthen Kenya’s Foreign Policy in the Decarbonisation Era

Executive Summary

Kenya’s indecisiveness on the climate-induced energy transition poses a challenge to her foreign relations and diplomatic strategy. The country’s intention to commercialise her unexploited hydrocarbon resources contradicts her international commitments and threatens strategic relations with global actors pushing for low-carbon economies. The uncertainty stems from the influence of competing geopolitical actors on her energy transition. For instance, China is promoting carbon-heavy Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, while Western powers are promoting decarbonisation and climate change mitigation. The latter has securitised climate change as the greatest threat to the survival of the human race as it precipitates conflict, humanitarian catastrophes and economic crisis. This has heightened interest on the implementation of Kenya’s Climate Change Act of 2016 and the National Climate Change Action Plan. Kenya’s relations with key global players, emerging green energy powers, neighbours and powerful oil conglomerates is thus bound to be impacted by the underway energy transition. It will further affect geopolitical realignments, creating rivalries, winners and losers. This paper concludes that the ongoing developments are critical in international geopolitics with varied implications on Kenya’s foreign policy, geopolitical relevance, national security and Vision 2030. The recommendations focus on reorienting the country’s diplomatic strategy to attenuate the energy transition uncertainties while taking advantage of the emerging opportunities.